In 2021, a major report found there is no space for new oil and gas if the world is to meet 1.5CĪn analysis of 1.5C scenarios by finds that they broadly concur with this, (but don’t make the same recommendation b/c this is beyond their remit)😬 #FFCC22 /iXTftNgrGR- Daisy Dunne September 26, 2022Īlso at the conference, Dr Natalie Jones, a policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), presented her analysis of how countries had discussed fossil fuels in the climate plans they submitted to the UN. On Monday, Olivier Bois von Kursk, a policy analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), ran through the preliminary results of his new analysis finding that most 1.5C scenarios – including those assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and from other sources – could be interpreted as being in agreement with the IEA’s recommendation for no new fossil fuel projects. The question of whether any new fossil fuel projects can be seen as compatible with a 1.5C world came up at various other points throughout the conference. “If we cut off all investments into fossil fuels, the declines in supply would be faster than the declines in demand” #FFCC22 /VySKy7VvgG- Josh Gabbatiss September 26, 2022 “The key thing…to help alleviate the impact of the energy crisis is to see a huge boost in clean energy energy efficiency.”ĭiscussing net-zero scenario, says despite the “no new fossil fuel” message, they actually don’t have investment dropping to zero He also added that the war should not “justify a new large and long-lived investment into new fossil fuel infrastructure: Nevertheless, he said the focus should be on existing, readily available sources due to long lead times for new projects. “Any immediate shortfalls that we see in production from Russia will need to be realised or compensated elsewhere.” The scenario also assumed a sustainable recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and ambitious climate policies, and did not forsee the war in Ukraine, he added: “We don’t have investment dropping to zero in the next couple of years, because if we cut off all investment into fossil fuels the declines in supply would be faster than the declines we see in fossil fuel demand.” Speaking to the conference, McGlade noted that this widely-cited conclusion required additional context around the need for continued investment in existing fossil fuel projects: McGlade oversaw an influential IEA report published in 2021 which concluded that there is no place for new fossil fuel projects if the world’s energy sector is to reach net-zero by 2050. He also pointed to the large shortfalls that currently exist in renewable energy funding – particularly in developing countries. “The more rapid deployment of clean energy, of efficiency measures, would have helped protect consumers,” he noted.Īt #FFCC22 from begins with a simple point about the current unprecedented energy crisis: some people have tried to blame the situation on climate policies: “We need to be very clear – this is incorrect” /YgybUixlY1- Josh Gabbatiss September 26, 2022 He took aim at those who “misleadingly” blame the crisis on climate policies, saying this distracted from the “real culprit” – namely, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s different from what happened in the 1970s, which mainly affected oil.” “We are in the first ever global energy crisis. The event opened with Christophe McGlade, head of the energy supply unit at the International Energy Agency (IEA), noting that the energy crisis currently facing the world poses “risks and perils for the energy transition” away from fossil fuels: This included how countries are accounting for coal, oil and gas in their climate plans under the Paris Agreement, and the impact that stringent targets are set to have on nations that rely heavily on revenue from producing fossil fuels. Many of the talks at the conference considered the question of fossil fuels in the international arena.

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